Project Covalent
In chemistry, covalent bonds are those in which atoms share electrons, creating stability through the connection. Project Covalent looks ahead to the next ten years to build a predictive signal framework that binds risk, return, and impact into a coherent investment approach that improves results.
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The Idea
This idea is the result of crowdsourced brainstorming from the Three Questions Pilot of the Re-think Risk Return Impact initiative over the first half of 2025. Project Covalent aims to surface explainable, predictive signals through an open, shared intelligence platform so all investors can align financial returns and positive impact to achieve superior results.
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As markets become more complex, investors demand customized strategies that reflect their diverse goals and value-creation approaches. But the data and tools to support these needs are insufficient. Project Covalent explores the synergy among uncertainty (risk), financial performance (return), and systemic outcomes (impact) by generating deeper predictive insights, smarter decisions, and stronger portfolios. By aligning diverse capital around shared intelligence, Project Covalent lays the foundation for increased collaboration among market actors, faster innovation, and ultimately more effective investing.
I welcome ongoing questions and input into this idea to determine viability and how it needs to evolve. Take a look at the Project Covalent white paper below and provide feedback / questions through the online form.
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Stay tuned for further developments.
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Thanks,
Holden
Additional Resources
Supporting work and updates for Project Covalent will continue to be posted here as the project develops
ESSAY: In the impact era, we need translation tools that enable more robust communication across the ecosystem and for different investors to co-exist and co-invest even when they frame value creation in conflicting ways.
ESSAY: A Practical Guide for All Investors. Predictive blended-return signals allow hedge funds, endowments, Development Finance Institutions, governments, philanthropies, and non-profits alike to act from the same intelligence base, while staying true to their own mandates.
Feedback prompts
Many thanks to friends and colleagues who have provided valuable early insights so far:
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Does Project Covalent clearly solve a real problem you or your peers experience when trying to integrate financial performance, systemic risk, and impact?
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How does Project Covalent complement, compete with, or duplicate other efforts you’re aware of in the investment sustainable finance, data intelligence, or open infrastructure ecosystems?
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What evidence would you need to see to be convinced that Project Covalent can improve portfolio outcomes, whether financial, impact, or systemic?
What risks, blind spots, or unintended consequences do you see in the approach Project Covalent is taking?
